"Market Timing? Al, are you crazy?"

Those were the exact words from my wife when I mentioned to her that I was building a model to get into the world of market timing. She's so confident of my abilities isn't she?

For those of you who need background - market timing is the art/science of foretelling what the "market" (in this case the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ) will do so that you can stay in (and keep buying) or cash out (sell everything and run for the hills).

APRIL 1, 2008

I've been thinking about doing this for awhile.

I've dedicated all my credit and credit card research and learnings to this humble website and will continue to provide the continuous education and recommendations as needed so that you can win the credit game.

But focusing on savings is only one aspect - the other is investing wisely - and with the way the market has been going recently - down - why not try out a model?

As a numbers guy, I've done predictive modeling in the business and marketing world. Never though for the market.

After 3 weeks of building it though...here is the first free look at it...

NASDAQ UP SIGNAL (April 1,2008)

S&P 500 DOWN (April 1,2008)

Dow DOWN (April 1,2008)

My model is essentially calling a bottom to the NASDAQ.

To not only talk about it but walk the walk, I have bought QLD (Ultra QQQ Proshares) at a price per share of $72.33. QLD essentially corresponds with twice the performance of the NASDAQ 100 index.

So if the model is correct, I will see some nice gains. If the model is not, I will lose my shirt.

Stay tuned...

APRIL 26, 2008

Turns out that the NASDAQ call was a beauty - it's been almost a month and QLD is at $80.80 ( a nice 11.7% increase from where I bought it!) I'll get out here.

That was the good news...bad news is I missed the bottom for the S&P 500. My market timing model says it was April 1st. I did not act on it but I will this week and will post as soon as I do.

JULY 6, 2008

More good news and bad news. Bad news first: I got out of QLD way too early (It went on to hit $92). Model had me out too soon. Good news: the NASDAQ and QLD have taken a hit and I'm looking to get back in. I trust the model to let me know when will be good to go get back in...not just yet though. In the meantime, I am fine tuning the model to learn from its ealier flaw, will keep you posted...